PolyTrace
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Trader profile

-Guapo--

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$129.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate46.9%2,531 settled · past 90 days32 open · 58% underwater · 11 hours ago
Lifetime volume$9.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,076Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−2.9% / $95% interval −273.6% to +267.7%38 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+0.9%n=36 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 46.9% · Decided 2,531 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Last loaded11 hours ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$44.3K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.2M
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
18%
Largest share of value
Positions
5,000
Showing the largest 8 of 5,000
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
NoValue$8KPnL−$2.8KAvg56.7¢Current41.9¢19,060.89Shares
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
NoValue$5.5KPnL+$2.1KAvg59¢Current94.9¢5,777.94Shares
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
NoValue$4.9KPnL+$0.04Avg95.5¢Current95.6¢5,179.59Shares
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 American League Championship Series?
NoValue$4.1KPnL−$353Avg77.1¢Current71¢5,776.73Shares
Will Indiana Fever win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
NoValue$3.9KPnL+$157Avg86.9¢Current90.5¢4,321.98Shares
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
NoValue$3.3KPnL−$82Avg89.7¢Current87.6¢3,780.34Shares
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
NoValue$2.6KPnL+$2Avg96¢Current96.1¢2,757Shares
Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?
NoValue$1.8KPnL−$408Avg66.8¢Current54.5¢3,311.07Shares
Showing 8 of 5,000 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet -Guapo--: 46.9% win rate over 2,531 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −2.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −273.6%, n=38 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+0.9% over 36 fills); −$129.4K lifetime P&L, $9.2M traded, updated 2026-09-23.