Trader profile

Mr-Krabs

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-24

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$72.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…23 open · 54% underwater · 3 hours ago

Lifetime volume$8.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded554Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−18.0% / $95% interval −198.2% to +162.3%113 settled fills · 90d window

Politics: −14.8%n=89 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded3 hours ago

Current position value: $100.8K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$1.2K
Concentration: 14.6%
Positions: 23

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

NoValue$14.8KPnL+$759Avg83.9¢Current88.5¢16,668.78Shares

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

YesValue$12.4KPnL+$1.3KAvg75.1¢Current84¢14,716.38Shares

Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?

NoValue$10.9KPnL+$2.1KAvg70.7¢Current87.6¢12,422.68Shares

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

NoValue$6.9KPnL+$280Avg83¢Current86.5¢7,999.98Shares

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by October 31?

YesValue$6.5KPnL+$430Avg90¢Current96.3¢6,771.78Shares

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?

NoValue$5.8KPnL−$46Avg95.3¢Current94.6¢6,132.18Shares

Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026?

NoValue$5.6KPnL−$215Avg75.3¢Current72.5¢7,700.4Shares

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

NoValue$5.4KPnL+$504Avg69.3¢Current76.5¢6,995.81Shares

Showing 8 of 23 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

9 hours ago

BUYYES

September 30 · 79¢

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?Open market →$1.2K

Open

13 hours ago

BUYYES

September 30 · 79¢

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?Open market →$1.1K

13 hours ago

SELLNO

December 31 · 69¢

NATO x Russia military clash by...?Open market →$3.6K

2 days ago

BUYYES

October 31 · 90¢

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?Open market →$2.3K

2 days ago

SELLYES

Mojtaba Khamenei · 83.8¢

Iran leader end of 2026?Open market →$2.5K

About this wallet

Wallet Mr-Krabs: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −18.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −198.2%, n=113 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−14.8% over 89 fills); +$72.5K lifetime P&L, $8.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.