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Trader profile

Ondra

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$19.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate61.9%2,869 settled · past 180 days24 open · 29% underwater · 12 hours ago
Lifetime volume$63.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded289Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−71.1% / $95% interval −427.9% to +285.6%37 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
−68.7%n=33 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 61.9% · Decided 2,869 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded12 hours ago
Current position value
$2.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$69.6K
Concentration
23.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
1,307
Showing the largest 8 of 1,307
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
YesValue$562PnL+$310Avg33.3¢Current74.5¢754.66Shares
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?
NoValue$267PnL+$85Avg55.7¢Current81.5¢327.2Shares
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?
NoValue$206PnL+$129Avg21¢Current56.5¢364.18Shares
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$184PnL−$117Avg1.8¢Current1.1¢16,729.4Shares
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
YesValue$156PnL+$71Avg10.6¢Current19.4¢806.57Shares
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.35% before 2027?
NoValue$142PnL+$64Avg41.3¢Current75¢189.24Shares
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?
YesValue$136PnL+$76Avg3.4¢Current7.8¢1,749.91Shares
Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?
YesValue$132PnL−$14Avg18.2¢Current16.5¢802.42Shares
Showing 8 of 1,307 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Ondra: 61.9% win rate over 2,869 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −71.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −427.9%, n=37 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (−68.7% over 33 fills); +$19.5K lifetime P&L, $63.8M traded, updated 2026-09-23.