PolyTrace
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Trader profile

abolgari

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$3.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate59.4%64 settled · past 180 days4 open · 100% underwater · 12 hours ago
Lifetime volume$380.6K387 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded76Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−19.9% / $95% interval −530.0% to +490.2%12 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−19.9%n=12 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 59.4% · Decided 64 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded12 hours ago
Current position value
$516
Snapshot cash PnL
−$9.2K
Concentration
46%
Largest share of value
Positions
29
Showing the largest 8 of 29
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$237PnL−$363Avg10¢Current4¢6,000Shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$121PnL−$179Avg17.7¢Current7.2¢1,694.92Shares
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$80PnL−$20Avg5.4¢Current4.4¢1,835.17Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
YesValue$77PnL−$3.6KAvg30.8¢Current0.7¢11,920Shares
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
NoValue$0PnL−$308Avg6¢Current0¢5,092.44Shares
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
YesValue$0PnL−$2Avg1¢Current0¢200Shares
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
NoValue$0PnL−$1KAvg32.7¢Current0¢3,179.64Shares
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YesValue$0PnL−$181Avg30.2¢Current0¢599.99Shares
Showing 8 of 29 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet abolgari: 59.4% win rate over 64 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −19.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −530.0%, n=12 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−19.9% over 12 fills); −$3.8K lifetime P&L, $380.6K traded, updated 2026-09-23.