PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Niseko

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$10.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate62.9%545 settled · past 180 days18 open · 99% underwater · 7 hours ago
Lifetime volume$7.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,094Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−14.4% / $95% interval −464.4% to +435.6%35 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−15.3%n=28 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 62.9% · Decided 545 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded7 hours ago
Current position value
$31.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$62.5K
Concentration
53.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
20
Showing the largest 8 of 20
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YesValue$16.8KPnL−$36.9KAvg68.8¢Current21.5¢77,999.81Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$3.1KPnL−$794Avg77.3¢Current61.5¢4,999.98Shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
YesValue$2.4KPnL−$6.6KAvg46.1¢Current12.5¢19,575.71Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$1.9KPnL−$2.8KAvg77.7¢Current31.5¢5,999.99Shares
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?
YesValue$1.2KPnL+$139Avg70.4¢Current79.5¢1,530Shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$1.2KPnL−$9.7KAvg59.9¢Current6.5¢18,144.65Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?
NoValue$993PnL+$113Avg88¢Current99.3¢1,000Shares
Ethereum Up or Down on September 24?
Up · YesValue$906PnL+$343Avg46.9¢Current75.5¢1,200.33Shares
Showing 8 of 20 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Niseko: 62.9% win rate over 545 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −14.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −464.4%, n=35 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−15.3% over 28 fills); +$10.1K lifetime P&L, $7.2M traded, updated 2026-09-24.