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Trader profile

HongKongMenace

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$65.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…10 open · 74% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$2.2M757 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded68Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−2.5% / $95% interval −317.1% to +312.0%48 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−8.7%n=37 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$82.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$44K
Concentration
55.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
16
Showing the largest 8 of 16
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YesValue$45.7KPnL+$2.2KAvg88¢Current92.5¢49,369.14Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
NoValue$14.9KPnL+$135Avg98.3¢Current99.2¢14,976.17Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$9.5KPnL−$2.7KAvg90.3¢Current70.5¢13,519.37Shares
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$7.4KPnL−$40Avg93¢Current92.5¢8,000Shares
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
YesValue$2.1KPnL−$5.5KAvg64.5¢Current18¢11,767.89Shares
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
NoValue$1KPnL+$191Avg78¢Current95.5¢1,091.26Shares
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?
YesValue$851PnL+$234Avg19.2¢Current26.5¢3,210.73Shares
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
YesValue$681PnL+$57Avg76.5¢Current83.5¢815.91Shares
Showing 8 of 16 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet HongKongMenace: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −2.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −317.1%, n=48 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−8.7% over 37 fills); +$65.9K lifetime P&L, $2.2M traded, updated 2026-09-22.