Trader profile

plumbis

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-23

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$50.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…61 open · 8% underwater · 16 hours ago

Lifetime volume$2.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded131Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−20.9% / $95% interval −401.0% to +359.3%84 settled fills · 90d window

Politics: −8.9%n=53 settled
Finance: −32.9%n=30 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 21 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded16 hours ago

Current position value: $308.1K
Snapshot cash PnL: +$9.2K
Concentration: 37.4%
Positions: 61

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

NoValue$115.3KPnL+$2KAvg97.4¢Current99.2¢116,284.49Shares

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

NoValue$42KPnL−$183Avg92.9¢Current92.5¢45,413.72Shares

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

YesValue$39.2KPnL+$3.5KAvg87.8¢Current96.5¢40,599.81Shares

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

YesValue$30.9KPnL+$495Avg92¢Current93.5¢33,000Shares

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?

NoValue$17KPnL+$669Avg95.6¢Current99.5¢17,101.12Shares

Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

NoValue$14.1KPnL+$427Avg95.6¢Current98.6¢14,294.91Shares

U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

NoValue$10.6KPnL−$310Avg89¢Current86.5¢12,233.7Shares

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

YesValue$7.9KPnL+$128Avg96.2¢Current97.8¢8,039.61Shares

Showing 8 of 61 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

1 hour ago

SELLNO

Renan Santos · 99.4¢

Brazil Presidential ElectionOpen market →$7K

2 hours ago

SELLNO

Renan Santos · 99.3¢

Brazil Presidential ElectionOpen market →$14K

2 hours ago

SELLNO

Renan Santos · 99.3¢

Brazil Presidential ElectionOpen market →$5.3K

3 hours ago

SELLNO

Renan Santos · 99.3¢

Brazil Presidential ElectionOpen market →$1K

3 hours ago

SELLNO

Renan Santos · 99.3¢

Brazil Presidential ElectionOpen market →$3.7K

About this wallet

Wallet plumbis: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −20.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −401.0%, n=84 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−8.9% over 53 fills); +$50.1K lifetime P&L, $2.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.