Trader profile

BrownBees

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-22

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$77.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…22 open · 81% underwater · 2 days ago

Lifetime volume$1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded120Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−2.6% / $95% interval −335.1% to +330.0%40 settled fills · 90d window

Sports: +8.8%n=14 settled
Tech: −10.0%n=25 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded2 days ago

Current position value: $28.2K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$14K
Concentration: 16.1%
Positions: 35

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?

YesValue$4.5KPnL+$1.3KAvg72.1¢Current100¢4,537.3Shares

Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?

YesValue$4KPnL+$475Avg70¢Current79.5¢5,000Shares

Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?

YesValue$2.7KPnL+$49Avg81¢Current82.5¢3,250.98Shares

Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

YesValue$2.5KPnL−$60Avg38.4¢Current37.5¢6,640.99Shares

Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?

YesValue$2.3KPnL+$462Avg80¢Current100¢2,313.99Shares

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

YesValue$2.3KPnL−$906Avg31.6¢Current22.5¢9,999.99Shares

Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?

YesValue$1.2KPnL−$1.9KAvg17.4¢Current6.9¢17,909.75Shares

Will the next OpenAI GPT Luna model be released on or prior to September 22, 2026?

YesValue$1.2KPnL+$221Avg60.1¢Current73.5¢1,653.41Shares

Showing 8 of 35 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

2 days ago

BUYYES

September 22 · 81¢

Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by...?Open market →$1.5K

9 days ago

BUYYES

October 31 · 72¢

Gemini 4.0 released by...?Open market →$1.6K

9 days ago

BUYYES

September 30 · 46¢

Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by September 30, 2026?Open market →$1.2K

14 days ago

SELLNO

OpenAI · 94.1¢

Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Open market →$2K

15 days ago

BUYYES

October 31 · 68¢

Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Open market →$1.7K

About this wallet

Wallet BrownBees: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −2.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −335.1%, n=40 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+8.8% over 14 fills); +$77.8K lifetime P&L, $1M traded, updated 2026-09-22.