PolyTrace
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Trader profile

groth

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$142.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…74 open · 29% underwater · 11 hours ago
Lifetime volume$2.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded531Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−21.8% / $95% interval −328.8% to +285.3%38 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−20.3%n=37 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded11 hours ago
Current position value
$98.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.6K
Concentration
12.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
155
Showing the largest 8 of 155
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
NoValue$12.1KPnL+$1.7KAvg76.9¢Current89.5¢13,558.52Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$11KPnL+$380Avg83.5¢Current86.5¢12,700.01Shares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
NoValue$10.5KPnL+$1.7KAvg83.8¢Current99.6¢10,557.76Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
NoValue$9.6KPnL+$2KAvg78.7¢Current99.2¢9,693.34Shares
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?
NoValue$8.7KPnL+$479Avg88.1¢Current93.3¢9,294.28Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?
NoValue$5.6KPnL+$124Avg97.8¢Current100¢5,587.75Shares
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$4.3KPnL+$420Avg86.7¢Current96¢4,499.99Shares
Fed rate hike in 2026?
YesValue$2.7KPnL+$1.1KAvg60.3¢Current100¢2,736.3Shares
Showing 8 of 155 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet groth: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −21.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −328.8%, n=38 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−20.3% over 37 fills); +$142.1K lifetime P&L, $2.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.