PolyTrace
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Trader profile

AYTLS

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$1.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet8 open · 100% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$547.6K672 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded246Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−16.3% / $95% interval −214.5% to +181.9%20 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−11.2%n=18 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$1.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$20K
Concentration
36.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
139
Showing the largest 8 of 139
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
NoValue$488PnL−$263Avg14.6¢Current9.5¢5,131.58Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
NoValue$186PnL−$498Avg15.1¢Current4.1¢4,538.19Shares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
NoValue$171PnL−$509Avg10.5¢Current2.7¢6,441.43Shares
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
YesValue$165PnL−$15Avg39.9¢Current36.5¢451.58Shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
YesValue$155PnL−$25Avg33¢Current28.5¢545.46Shares
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by September 30?
YesValue$109PnL−$431Avg15.3¢Current3.1¢3,525.16Shares
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
YesValue$63PnL−$117Avg10.4¢Current3.7¢1,727.73Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
YesValue$15PnL−$165Avg9.2¢Current0.8¢1,956.35Shares
Showing 8 of 139 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet AYTLS: edge −16.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −214.5%, n=20 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−11.2% over 18 fills); +$1.3K lifetime P&L, $547.6K traded, updated 2026-09-22.