PolyTrace
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Trader profile

chillballer

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$11.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…11 open · 59% underwater · 10 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.1M679 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded88Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−20.0% / $95% interval −374.9% to +335.0%53 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−15.8%n=14 settled
Sports
−18.7%n=32 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded10 hours ago
Current position value
$22.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$27.5K
Concentration
15.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
25
Showing the largest 8 of 25
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$3.5KPnL−$1.5KAvg49¢Current34.5¢10,204.08Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
NoValue$3.2KPnL+$1.1KAvg53¢Current79.5¢4,000Shares
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$2.7KPnL−$68Avg29.2¢Current28.5¢9,390Shares
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
YesValue$2.6KPnL−$540Avg13.5¢Current11.2¢23,000Shares
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
YesValue$2.2KPnL+$60Avg84.2¢Current86.5¢2,566.57Shares
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
YesValue$2.1KPnL+$329Avg81.4¢Current96.5¢2,184.9Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
NoValue$1.9KPnL+$280Avg78.5¢Current92.5¢2,000Shares
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$1.7KPnL+$0.55Avg73¢Current73¢2,323.47Shares
Showing 8 of 25 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet chillballer: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −20.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −374.9%, n=53 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−15.8% over 14 fills); +$11.9K lifetime P&L, $1.1M traded, updated 2026-09-23.