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Trader profile

Themsnw

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$40.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate47%100 settled · past 90 days1 open · 100% underwater · 15 hours ago
Lifetime volume$11.1M976 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded101Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−15.4% / $95% interval −54.7% to +23.9%427 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−9.0%n=396 settled
Politics
−67.4%n=31 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 47% · Decided 100 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded15 hours ago
Current position value
$735
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.4M
Concentration
100%
Largest share of value
Positions
44
Showing the largest 8 of 44
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$735PnL−$47.3KAvg16.3¢Current0.3¢294,019.86Shares
Cody Bellinger: Home Runs O/U 0.5
Over · YesValue$0PnL−$1.6KAvg21.2¢Current0¢7,775.5Shares
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance
France · YesValue$0PnL−$37.7KAvg59¢Current0¢63,857.59Shares
Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur Fery
Flavio Cobolli · YesValue$0PnL−$10KAvg28¢Current0¢35,744.29Shares
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Arizona Diamondbacks · NoValue$0PnL−$1,000Avg13.2¢Current0¢7,582.74Shares
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?
YesValue$0PnL−$13KAvg37¢Current0¢35,135.14Shares
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
Conor McGregor · NoValue$0PnL−$10KAvg28¢Current0¢35,714.29Shares
Will LeBron James play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27?
YesValue$0PnL−$625Avg4¢Current0¢15,799.32Shares
Showing 8 of 44 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Themsnw: 47% win rate over 100 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −15.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −54.7%, n=427 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−9.0% over 396 fills); −$40.3K lifetime P&L, $11.1M traded, updated 2026-09-23.