PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

3648393489047

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$121.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate60.1%952 settled · past 90 days20 open · 94% underwater · 15 hours ago
Lifetime volume$36M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded633Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+3.9% / $95% interval −16.2% to +24.0%2,205 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
+6.9%n=16 settled
Unmapped
+5.6%n=113 settled
Sports
+5.0%n=1,975 settled
Politics
−9.1%n=59 settled
Crypto
−26.9%n=28 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 60.1% · Decided 952 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded15 hours ago
Current position value
$45.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$60.5K
Concentration
70.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
27
Showing the largest 8 of 27
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?
NoValue$31.7KPnL+$738Avg57.1¢Current58.5¢54,113.64Shares
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?
NoValue$4.7KPnL−$153Avg75.4¢Current73¢6,376.16Shares
Will Kanye West meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31?
NoValue$2.2KPnL+$2Avg98¢Current98.1¢2,222.56Shares
Will Manuela Schwesig be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
YesValue$2KPnL+$65Avg94.9¢Current98.1¢2,053.11Shares
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
YesValue$1.1KPnL+$96Avg80.1¢Current87.5¢1,290.2Shares
Will Leif-Erik Holm be the next Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
NoValue$734PnL+$5Avg97.8¢Current98.5¢745.26Shares
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
NoValue$610PnL+$2Avg91.1¢Current91.5¢667.52Shares
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
NoValue$602PnL+$33Avg74.3¢Current78.6¢765.76Shares
Showing 8 of 27 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 3648393489047: 60.1% win rate over 952 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +3.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −16.2%, n=2,205 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (+6.9% over 16 fills); +$121.4K lifetime P&L, $36M traded, updated 2026-09-23.