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Trader profile

Marioy

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$2.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate84.4%77 settled · past 90 days12 open · 2% underwater · 20 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded461Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−8.1% / $95% interval −312.4% to +296.2%58 settled fills · 90d window
Crypto
−8.5%n=56 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 84.4% · Decided 77 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded20 hours ago
Current position value
$142.6K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$41.2K
Concentration
19.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
22
Showing the largest 8 of 22
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$28.2KPnL+$15.2KAvg43.3¢Current94¢29,999.91Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$28KPnL+$10.8KAvg58.8¢Current95.9¢29,171.27Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$21.7KPnL+$5.8KAvg70.8¢Current96.5¢22,535.56Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in September?
NoValue$19.8KPnL+$1.1KAvg93.5¢Current99.1¢20,000Shares
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
YesValue$11.2KPnL−$791Avg88.3¢Current82.5¢13,560.12Shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$9.2KPnL+$6.3KAvg29¢Current91.5¢10,000Shares
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
YesValue$7.9KPnL+$402Avg74.5¢Current78.5¢10,016.13Shares
Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?
YesValue$4.3KPnL+$1.2KAvg49.6¢Current69.5¢6,247.21Shares
Showing 8 of 22 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Marioy: 84.4% win rate over 77 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −8.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −312.4%, n=58 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Crypto (−8.5% over 56 fills); −$2.2K lifetime P&L, $3.7M traded, updated 2026-09-23.