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Trader profile

casualbet2020

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$291.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate56.1%287 settled · past 90 days1 open · 0% underwater · 41 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$6.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded441Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+1.6% / $95% interval −17.5% to +20.6%99 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+1.6%n=99 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 56.1% · Decided 287 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete41 minutes ago
Current position value
$5
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.2M
Concentration
100%
Largest share of value
Positions
172
Showing the largest 8 of 172
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Champions Group C
Paper Rex · NoValue$5PnL+$0.75Avg59¢Current69.5¢7.13Shares
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs
SaD Esports · NoValue$0PnL−$300Avg29¢Current0¢1,033.81Shares
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Omega
XLG Gaming · NoValue$0PnL−$27.9KAvg62¢Current0¢44,999.98Shares
Valorant: Gentle Mates GC vs SK Nebula (BO3) - VCT Game Changers EMEA Playoffs
SK Nebula · NoValue$0PnL−$1.2KAvg42.5¢Current0¢2,938.8Shares
Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Athletics · YesValue$0PnL−$7.3KAvg29.1¢Current0¢25,053Shares
Valorant: Nova Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs
Nova Esports · YesValue$0PnL−$1KAvg67.4¢Current0¢1,490.45Shares
Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2
KRÜ Esports · NoValue$0PnL−$6.3KAvg46¢Current0¢13,622.22Shares
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha
FURIA Esports · YesValue$0PnL−$4.3KAvg25.7¢Current0¢16,640.03Shares
Showing 8 of 172 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet casualbet2020: 56.1% win rate over 287 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +1.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −17.5%, n=99 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+1.6% over 99 fills); +$291.9K lifetime P&L, $6.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.