PolyTrace
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Trader profile

lava-lava

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$995.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate45%347 settled · past 90 days223 open · 29% underwater · 15 hours ago
Lifetime volume$40.8M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded552Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+2.3% / $95% interval −34.9% to +39.4%110 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+2.3%n=110 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 45% · Decided 347 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded15 hours ago
Current position value
$205.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$70.6K
Concentration
11.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
466
Showing the largest 8 of 466
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 5%?
Under · NoValue$22.8KPnL+$5KAvg77.7¢Current99.7¢22,884.64Shares
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
NoValue$19.9KPnL+$5.2KAvg44¢Current59.5¢33,407.13Shares
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$11.5KPnL+$2.2KAvg49.6¢Current61.5¢18,694.7Shares
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
NoValue$11KPnL+$2.1KAvg48.9¢Current60.5¢18,111.71Shares
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
NoValue$5.1KPnL+$522Avg76.8¢Current85.5¢5,988.89Shares
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
NoValue$4.9KPnL+$257Avg60.2¢Current63.5¢7,718.23Shares
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
YesValue$4.7KPnL+$2.2KAvg30.4¢Current58.2¢8,060.97Shares
Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
YesValue$4.5KPnL+$2.8KAvg38¢Current99.4¢4,543.58Shares
Showing 8 of 466 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet lava-lava: 45% win rate over 347 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +2.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −34.9%, n=110 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+2.3% over 110 fills); +$995.7K lifetime P&L, $40.8M traded, updated 2026-09-23.