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Trader profile

Geminae.Columbae

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$33Polymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…10 open · 61% underwater · 3 days ago
Lifetime volume$1.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded100Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−28.6% / $95% interval −68.6% to +11.5%10 settled fills · 90d window

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 days ago
Current position value
$21.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$13.8K
Concentration
31.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
12
Showing the largest 8 of 12
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$6.6KPnL+$3.3KAvg30.6¢Current61.1¢10,799.99Shares
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
YesValue$4.3KPnL−$983Avg34.5¢Current28¢15,181.43Shares
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YesValue$2.8KPnL−$1.1KAvg53.5¢Current38.5¢7,399.99Shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$2.8KPnL+$213Avg47.3¢Current51.2¢5,399.99Shares
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
YesValue$1.4KPnL−$4KAvg56.5¢Current14.5¢9,554.17Shares
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$929PnL+$141Avg1.5¢Current1.8¢53,104.71Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$902PnL−$155Avg24¢Current20.5¢4,400.01Shares
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$689PnL−$154Avg49.5¢Current40.5¢1,700Shares
Showing 8 of 12 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Geminae.Columbae: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −28.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −68.6%, n=10 settled fills over 90 days); −$33 lifetime P&L, $1.7M traded, updated 2026-09-21.