PolyTrace
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Trader profile

paddaa

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$239.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate60.6%536 settled · past 90 days259 open · 39% underwater · 1 hour ago
Lifetime volume$15.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded720Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+19.2% / $95% interval −45.1% to +83.5%399 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+24.8%n=352 settled
Finance
−10.2%n=14 settled
Unmapped
−13.4%n=12 settled
Culture
−23.3%n=19 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 60.6% · Decided 536 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 hour ago
Current position value
$145.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$6.6K
Concentration
7.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
260
Showing the largest 8 of 260
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
NoValue$10.7KPnL+$2KAvg69.3¢Current85.5¢12,529.96Shares
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?
NoValue$7.1KPnL+$1.6KAvg60.1¢Current77.5¢9,216.12Shares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
YesValue$7KPnL+$516Avg89.8¢Current96.9¢7,237.02Shares
Iran full airspace closure by September 30?
NoValue$6.4KPnL+$303Avg92.3¢Current97¢6,582.16Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$4.9KPnL−$863Avg37¢Current31.5¢15,627.46Shares
Houthis enter Aden by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$4.3KPnL+$610Avg66.1¢Current77¢5,603.85Shares
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
NoValue$4.2KPnL+$93Avg86.1¢Current88¢4,784.66Shares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
YesValue$3.3KPnL+$541Avg52.1¢Current62.5¢5,215.91Shares
Showing 8 of 260 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet paddaa: 60.6% win rate over 536 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +19.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −45.1%, n=399 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+24.8% over 352 fills); +$239.1K lifetime P&L, $15.9M traded, updated 2026-09-24.