PolyTrace
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Trader profile

30c9

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$2.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate50.5%93 settled · past 180 days15 open · 55% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$3M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded155Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−2.5% / $95% interval −56.2% to +51.3%25 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−2.5%n=25 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 8 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 50.5% · Decided 93 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$3.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$77
Concentration
21.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
16
Showing the largest 8 of 16
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$796PnL+$294Avg50¢Current79.3¢1,004Shares
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
YesValue$638PnL+$8Avg42¢Current42.5¢1,500.01Shares
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
NoValue$493PnL+$0.40Avg61.6¢Current61.7¢800Shares
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
YesValue$425PnL−$27Avg43.1¢Current40.5¢1,048.54Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$422PnL−$0.50Avg42.2¢Current42.2¢1,000Shares
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$267PnL−$27Avg22.5¢Current20.5¢1,300Shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$255PnL−$1Avg51.2¢Current50.9¢500.05Shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$211PnL−$297Avg50¢Current20.8¢1,015Shares
Showing 8 of 16 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 30c9: 50.5% win rate over 93 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −2.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −56.2%, n=25 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−2.5% over 25 fills); −$2.4K lifetime P&L, $3M traded, updated 2026-09-28.