PolyTrace
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Trader profile

arbandy

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$157.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…17 open · 66% underwater · 9 hours ago
Lifetime volume$15.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded324Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−24.2% / $95% interval −252.4% to +204.0%105 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−1.2%n=10 settled
Sports
−23.8%n=12 settled
Crypto
−25.2%n=67 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 6 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded9 hours ago
Current position value
$30.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$447.8K
Concentration
19.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
460
Showing the largest 8 of 460
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
No one announced as next James Bond?
YesValue$5.9KPnL+$1.7KAvg23¢Current32¢18,400.84Shares
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
YesValue$4.3KPnL+$434Avg38.2¢Current42.5¢10,047.28Shares
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?
YesValue$3.5KPnL−$273Avg73.4¢Current68.1¢5,108.59Shares
Will Waymo operate in fewer than 12 cities on December 31 2026?
YesValue$2.7KPnL−$63Avg41.7¢Current40.8¢6,550.94Shares
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$2.6KPnL+$1.1KAvg56.1¢Current93¢2,844.49Shares
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?
NoValue$2.3KPnL−$1.6KAvg34.7¢Current20.4¢11,499.9Shares
SSI public model released by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$1.9KPnL+$240Avg86.1¢Current98.3¢1,967.61Shares
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
NoValue$1.7KPnL+$250Avg15.8¢Current18.5¢9,353.72Shares
Showing 8 of 460 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet arbandy: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −24.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −252.4%, n=105 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−1.2% over 10 fills); −$157.9K lifetime P&L, $15.5M traded, updated 2026-09-29.