PolyTrace
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Trader profile

balthazar

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$1MPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate21.1%12,616 settled · past 90 days506 open · 54% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$72.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded2,827Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−27.4% / $95% interval −199.5% to +144.6%414 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−6.7%n=97 settled
Finance
−7.4%n=11 settled
Tech
−13.1%n=10 settled
Crypto
−17.6%n=12 settled
Sports
−33.2%n=276 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 1 hour ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 21.1% · Decided 12,616 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Top 5,000
Last loaded3 hours ago

This snapshot reached the 5,000-position product limit. Showing up to 5,000 positions by size.

Current position value
$527.8K
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Snapshot cash PnL
−$2.2M
Based on Top 5,000 positions
Concentration
38.7%
Largest share of value
Positions
5,000
Showing the largest 8 of 5,000
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
NoValue$204.4KPnL+$79.4KAvg50¢Current81.8¢250,000Shares
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
NoValue$127.4KPnL+$55.4KAvg50¢Current88.5¢144,000Shares
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$45.6KPnL−$79.4KAvg50¢Current18.3¢250,110Shares
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
YesValue$16.6KPnL−$55.4KAvg50¢Current11.5¢144,000Shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
YesValue$13.1KPnL+$1.3KAvg76.4¢Current85¢15,420.72Shares
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?
YesValue$8KPnL+$788Avg68.1¢Current75.5¢10,617.24Shares
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$7.7KPnL+$2KAvg71.7¢Current96.1¢8,036.68Shares
Will Ethereum reach $3,300 in September?
NoValue$7KPnL+$178Avg96.3¢Current98.8¢7,123.3Shares
Showing 8 of 5,000 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet balthazar: 21.1% win rate over 12,616 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −27.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −199.5%, n=414 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−6.7% over 97 fills); +$1M lifetime P&L, $72.4M traded, updated 2026-09-24.