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Trader profile

papillon1

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$10.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate56.8%322 settled · past 180 days0 open · 3 days ago
Lifetime volume$826K643 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded369Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+4.1% / $95% interval −223.2% to +231.4%27 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+4.1%n=27 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 23 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 56.8% · Decided 322 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$0
Snapshot cash PnL
−$89K
Concentration
—
Largest share of value
Positions
107
Showing the largest 8 of 107
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
CA Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza vs. CA Central Córdoba: O/U 1.5
Over · YesValue$0PnL−$1KAvg60¢Current0¢1,666.67Shares
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann
Yannick Hanfmann · NoValue$0PnL−$230Avg57¢Current0¢403.51Shares
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger
Ashlyn Krueger · NoValue$0PnL−$1KAvg64¢Current0¢1,563.36Shares
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5
OverValue$0PnL−$2KAvg54¢Current0¢3,703.7Shares
Iasi Open: Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa
Paula Badosa · NoValue$0PnL−$1KAvg65¢Current0¢1,538.46Shares
Cádiz CF vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: Both Teams to Score
YesValue$0PnL−$400Avg55¢Current0¢727.07Shares
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5
Over · YesValue$0PnL−$1KAvg68¢Current0¢1,470.59Shares
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech
Arthur Rinderknech · NoValue$0PnL−$500Avg52.8¢Current0¢946.91Shares
Showing 8 of 107 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet papillon1: 56.8% win rate over 322 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge +4.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −223.2%, n=27 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+4.1% over 27 fills); −$10.2K lifetime P&L, $826K traded, updated 2026-09-27.