PolyTrace
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Trader profile

hopedieslast

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$262.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate55%60 settled · past 90 days37 open · 55% underwater · 6 hours ago
Lifetime volume$10.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded254Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−7.5% / $95% interval −84.5% to +69.6%24 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−7.5%n=24 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 55% · Decided 60 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded6 hours ago
Current position value
$298.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$119.4K
Concentration
21.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
51
Showing the largest 8 of 51
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$63.1KPnL+$20.6KAvg47.5¢Current70.5¢89,498.83Shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$43.2KPnL+$1.8KAvg92¢Current96¢44,999.99Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$35.4KPnL+$198Avg83¢Current83.5¢42,452.1Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$31.6KPnL+$1.2KAvg91.8¢Current95.5¢33,070.54Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$23.2KPnL+$517Avg91.4¢Current93.5¢24,817.29Shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$21.7KPnL+$2.7KAvg77.3¢Current88.5¢24,499.98Shares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$12.3KPnL+$531Avg89.5¢Current93.5¢13,168.78Shares
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
NoValue$9.2KPnL+$200Avg90¢Current92¢9,999.99Shares
Showing 8 of 51 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet hopedieslast: 55% win rate over 60 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −7.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −84.5%, n=24 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−7.5% over 24 fills); +$262.8K lifetime P&L, $10.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.