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Trader profile

Arbguy

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$493.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…25 open · 88% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$63.2M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded264Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−11.0% / $95% interval −260.7% to +238.7%88 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
+28.2%n=19 settled
Sports
+10.2%n=22 settled
Politics
−39.9%n=39 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 18 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$193.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$112.8K
Concentration
17%
Largest share of value
Positions
28
Showing the largest 8 of 28
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
NoValue$32.7KPnL+$3.5KAvg82.6¢Current92.5¢35,402.43Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
YesValue$24.1KPnL−$11KAvg22.6¢Current15.5¢155,444.61Shares
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YesValue$21.6KPnL−$6.1KAvg48.2¢Current37.5¢57,485.67Shares
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$20.1KPnL+$8.2KAvg1.3¢Current2.3¢892,945.22Shares
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$18.7KPnL−$4.7KAvg49.4¢Current39.5¢47,217.8Shares
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
YesValue$18.1KPnL+$1.9KAvg83¢Current92.5¢19,565.08Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
YesValue$10.1KPnL−$7KAvg11¢Current6.5¢155,243.25Shares
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
YesValue$8.1KPnL−$2.8KAvg41¢Current30.5¢26,637.93Shares
Showing 8 of 28 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
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Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Arbguy: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −11.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −260.7%, n=88 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (+28.2% over 19 fills); +$493.6K lifetime P&L, $63.2M traded, updated 2026-09-27.