PolyTrace
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Trader profile

nole-ksum

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$1.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate53.4%131 settled · past 180 days0 open · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$280.1K786 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded313Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−22.7% / $95% interval −582.5% to +537.0%38 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
−18.5%n=34 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 17 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 53.4% · Decided 131 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$0
Snapshot cash PnL
−$4.7K
Concentration
—
Largest share of value
Positions
119
Showing the largest 8 of 119
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$43Avg3.7¢Current0¢1,158.71Shares
Will Burkina Faso win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025?
YesValue$0PnL−$15Avg1.7¢Current0¢889.21Shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
Down · NoValue$0PnL−$1Avg2¢Current0¢50Shares
Tiburon: Michael Mmoh vs J.J. Wolf
J.J. Wolf · NoValue$0PnL−$50Avg29.3¢Current0¢170.45Shares
Tulln: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Gustavo Heide
Diego Dedura-Palomero · YesValue$0PnL−$5Avg0.1¢Current0¢5,000Shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$6Avg1.6¢Current0¢359.6Shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$64Avg9.3¢Current0¢689.07Shares
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?
YesValue$0PnL−$5Avg10¢Current0¢50Shares
Showing 8 of 119 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet nole-ksum: 53.4% win rate over 131 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −22.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −582.5%, n=38 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (−18.5% over 34 fills); +$1.4K lifetime P&L, $280.1K traded, updated 2026-09-28.