PolyTrace
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Trader profile

adasol

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$14.8KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate61.5%265 settled · past 90 days65 open · 65% underwater · 10 hours ago
Lifetime volume$47.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded99Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−57.4% / $95% interval −728.3% to +613.5%36 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−53.8%n=32 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 16 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 61.5% · Decided 265 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded10 hours ago
Current position value
$4.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$229
Concentration
12.2%
Largest share of value
Positions
66
Showing the largest 8 of 66
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$552PnL−$3Avg95.8¢Current95.3¢579.67Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$451PnL+$14Avg57¢Current58.8¢767.59Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$324PnL+$76Avg27.9¢Current36.5¢886.43Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
NoValue$279PnL+$1Avg99.3¢Current99.7¢279.93Shares
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)
NoValue$248PnL−$197Avg45.8¢Current25.5¢973.05Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$247PnL+$9Avg61.2¢Current63.5¢388.79Shares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
YesValue$231PnL−$1Avg54.8¢Current54.5¢423.93Shares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
YesValue$176PnL−$0.78Avg34.7¢Current34.5¢509.9Shares
Showing 8 of 66 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet adasol: 61.5% win rate over 265 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −57.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −728.3%, n=36 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−53.8% over 32 fills); +$14.8K lifetime P&L, $47.4M traded, updated 2026-09-28.