PolyTrace
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Trader profile

ProsperIntelligence

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate48.7%191 settled · past 180 days8 open · 26% underwater · 21 hours ago
Lifetime volume$416.7K1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded213Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−26.3% / $95% interval −74.5% to +22.0%13 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
−26.3%n=13 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 15 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 48.7% · Decided 191 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded21 hours ago
Current position value
$1.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$146
Concentration
47.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
8
All shown
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
YesValue$546PnL+$193Avg30¢Current46.5¢1,174.14Shares
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
YesValue$142PnL−$49Avg26.3¢Current19.5¢726.27Shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
YesValue$131PnL+$20Avg18.7¢Current22¢597.46Shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
NoValue$96PnL$0Avg78¢Current78¢122.51Shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?
YesValue$92PnL+$6Avg23.8¢Current25.5¢361.49Shares
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
YesValue$54PnL+$6Avg15.4¢Current17.5¢307.2Shares
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
YesValue$50PnL−$25Avg14.4¢Current9.5¢523.61Shares
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?
YesValue$41PnL−$5Avg23¢Current20.5¢199.72Shares
All 8 positions shown
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet ProsperIntelligence: 48.7% win rate over 191 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −26.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −74.5%, n=13 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (−26.3% over 13 fills); −$5K lifetime P&L, $416.7K traded, updated 2026-09-27.