PolyTrace
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Trader profile

0x4fc3…3af9

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$315Polymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet4 open · 100% underwater · 6 days ago
Lifetime volume$206.3K378 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded222Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−2.8% / $95% interval −12.4% to +6.8%10 settled fills · 90d window
Science
−2.8%n=10 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 13 hours ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded6 days ago
Current position value
$431
Snapshot cash PnL
−$3K
Concentration
100%
Largest share of value
Positions
20
Showing the largest 8 of 20
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 23?
NoValue$431PnL−$9Avg99¢Current97¢444.44Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 22?
YesValue$0.02PnL−$10Avg33.3¢Current0.1¢30Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 22?
YesValue$0.01PnL−$10Avg34¢Current0.1¢29.41Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 22?
NoValue$0.01PnL−$15Avg78¢Current0.1¢19.23Shares
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 1?
NoValue$0PnL−$250Avg92.3¢Current0¢270.93Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 14?
YesValue$0PnL−$2Avg32¢Current0¢6.25Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10?
YesValue$0PnL−$5Avg32¢Current0¢15.63Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?
YesValue$0PnL−$5Avg3.8¢Current0¢133.07Shares
Showing 8 of 20 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 0x4fc3651cbf669fa5bd8e1c5a49c73d0982af3af9: edge −2.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −12.4%, n=10 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Science (−2.8% over 10 fills); −$315 lifetime P&L, $206.3K traded, updated 2026-09-23.