PolyTrace
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Trader profile

0x4ce3…4291

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$15.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet16 open · 98% underwater · 22 hours ago
Lifetime volume$1.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded3,168Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−39.2% / $95% interval −924.7% to +846.3%13 settled fills · 90d window
Science
−39.2%n=13 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded22 hours ago
Current position value
$266
Snapshot cash PnL
−$57.4K
Concentration
57.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
3,351
Showing the largest 8 of 3,351
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 24?
YesValue$152PnL−$2Avg40¢Current39.5¢384Shares
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on September 23?
NoValue$66PnL+$2Avg90.9¢Current94¢70.14Shares
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on September 23?
NoValue$45PnL+$3Avg93.8¢Current100¢44.57Shares
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 23?
YesValue$0.96PnL−$99Avg25.9¢Current0.3¢385.73Shares
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 23?
YesValue$0.43PnL−$24Avg13.9¢Current0.3¢173.64Shares
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on September 23?
YesValue$0.34PnL−$3Avg0.5¢Current0.1¢680.01Shares
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on September 23?
YesValue$0.30PnL−$15Avg2.6¢Current0.1¢598.43Shares
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on September 23?
YesValue$0.29PnL−$4Avg0.7¢Current0.1¢587.26Shares
Showing 8 of 3,351 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet 0x4ce3f17be91c3d0d6dbfed7bd4d326957dec4291: edge −39.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −924.7%, n=13 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Science (−39.2% over 13 fills); +$15.6K lifetime P&L, $1.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.