Trader profile

MossBerg21

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-28

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$6.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…18 open · 95% underwater · 54 minutes ago

Lifetime volume$1.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded1,429Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−10.7% / $95% interval −399.5% to +378.0%10 settled fills · 90d window

Sports: −10.7%n=10 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Complete54 minutes ago

Current position value: $1.5K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$8.9K
Concentration: 40.1%
Positions: 23

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

YesValue$613PnL−$387Avg53¢Current32.5¢1,886.79Shares

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YesValue$143PnL+$43Avg40.4¢Current57.7¢247.43Shares

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

YesValue$141PnL+$35Avg38.2¢Current50.9¢277.36Shares

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

YesValue$94PnL−$106Avg8¢Current3.8¢2,500Shares

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

YesValue$81PnL−$219Avg9.4¢Current2.6¢3,191.49Shares

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?

NoValue$77PnL−$23Avg14.3¢Current11¢696.93Shares

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

YesValue$70PnL−$35Avg24.2¢Current16.1¢433.47Shares

Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

YesValue$69PnL−$31Avg8¢Current5.5¢1,250Shares

Showing 8 of 23 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

12 days ago

BUYYES

No change · 53¢

Fed Decision in October?Open market →$1K

1 month ago

BUYYES

Match Winner · 70¢

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group AOpen market →$1K

1 month ago

BUYYES

Match Winner · 87.2¢

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs M80 (BO3) - BLAST Open Porto Group AOpen market →$5K

1 month ago

SELLNO

December 31, 2026 · 92¢

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Open market →$2.3K

1 month ago

SELLNO

Match Winner · 99.9¢

Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Spirit (BO5) - Esports World Cup PlayoffsOpen market →$3.7K

About this wallet

Wallet MossBerg21: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −10.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −399.5%, n=10 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−10.7% over 10 fills); −$6.2K lifetime P&L, $1.4M traded, updated 2026-09-28.