PolyTrace
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Trader profile

RainIess

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$15KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…13 open · 42% underwater · 9 hours ago
Lifetime volume$372.2K523 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded60Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+8.7% / $95% interval −217.4% to +234.7%51 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+8.5%n=19 settled
Culture
+2.9%n=12 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded9 hours ago
Current position value
$9.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$77
Concentration
41.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
15
Showing the largest 8 of 15
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?
NoValue$3.9KPnL+$151Avg83.2¢Current86.6¢4,528.81Shares
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YesValue$1.3KPnL−$102Avg42¢Current39¢3,383.7Shares
Putin meets with Iranian officials by December 31?
YesValue$909PnL+$8Avg97.2¢Current98.1¢926.12Shares
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?
NoValue$876PnL−$11Avg84¢Current83¢1,055.93Shares
CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?
YesValue$521PnL+$101Avg64.1¢Current79.5¢655.26Shares
Will Drake release a new album by September 30?
NoValue$496PnL+$17Avg92.7¢Current96.1¢516.17Shares
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$459PnL−$16Avg87¢Current84¢546.76Shares
Will AI solve the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture in 2026?
NoValue$433PnL+$3Avg84.4¢Current85¢509.28Shares
Showing 8 of 15 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet RainIess: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge +8.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −217.4%, n=51 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+8.5% over 19 fills); +$15K lifetime P&L, $372.2K traded, updated 2026-09-24.