PolyTrace
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Trader profile

aenews2

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$2.2MPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate58.3%434 settled · past 90 days104 open · 79% underwater · 3 hours ago
Lifetime volume$250.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded522Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−7.1% / $95% interval −100.2% to +86.1%361 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+15.5%n=75 settled
Unmapped
+12.4%n=11 settled
Culture
−6.3%n=88 settled
Finance
−7.1%n=32 settled
Politics
−20.5%n=142 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 58.3% · Decided 434 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded3 hours ago
Current position value
$108.2K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$461.5K
Concentration
24.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
252
Showing the largest 8 of 252
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$26.9KPnL+$7.9KAvg22.2¢Current31.5¢85,315.33Shares
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
YesValue$23.5KPnL−$23.7KAvg12.6¢Current6.3¢375,601.86Shares
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$10.7KPnL+$1.6KAvg14.8¢Current17.5¢61,404.19Shares
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?
YesValue$8.4KPnL+$1.4KAvg82.3¢Current99¢8,460.9Shares
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$6.9KPnL+$625Avg25¢Current27.5¢24,999.46Shares
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?
NoValue$4.9KPnL+$124Avg94.6¢Current97¢5,102.05Shares
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YesValue$3.4KPnL+$364Avg34.9¢Current39¢8,788.84Shares
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
YesValue$2.1KPnL−$402Avg6.7¢Current5.6¢37,126.03Shares
Showing 8 of 252 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet aenews2: 58.3% win rate over 434 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −7.1% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −100.2%, n=361 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+15.5% over 75 fills); +$2.2M lifetime P&L, $250.6M traded, updated 2026-09-24.