PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Warren-Buffett

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$153.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate71.4%461 settled · past 90 days50 open · 86% underwater · 7 hours ago
Lifetime volume$29.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded546Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−21.6% / $95% interval −143.6% to +100.5%288 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
+4.2%n=30 settled
Politics
−24.8%n=240 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 3 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 71.4% · Decided 461 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded7 hours ago
Current position value
$83.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$26.1K
Concentration
14.3%
Largest share of value
Positions
50
Showing the largest 8 of 50
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
NoValue$11.9KPnL+$511Avg69.9¢Current73¢16,258.37Shares
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027?
YesValue$8.7KPnL+$71Avg85.8¢Current86.5¢10,000.01Shares
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?
YesValue$5.4KPnL−$39Avg97.2¢Current96.5¢5,624.25Shares
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
NoValue$4.4KPnL+$355Avg81.4¢Current88.5¢4,999.99Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$4KPnL−$2.7KAvg52.6¢Current31.5¢12,660.46Shares
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
YesValue$3.6KPnL+$1.3KAvg42.4¢Current65.5¢5,530.73Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
YesValue$3.5KPnL+$373Avg6.7¢Current7.5¢47,250.09Shares
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$3.5KPnL+$679Avg55.9¢Current69.5¢5,000.01Shares
Showing 8 of 50 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Warren-Buffett: 71.4% win rate over 461 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −21.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −143.6%, n=288 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (+4.2% over 30 fills); +$153.1K lifetime P&L, $29.1M traded, updated 2026-09-24.