PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Toncar16

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$119.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate46.4%181 settled · past 90 days11 open · 60% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$4.5M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,123Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+11.3% / $95% interval −309.8% to +332.4%13 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−8.0%n=10 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

Measured 7 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 46.4% · Decided 181 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$4.4K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$393
Concentration
49.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
11
Showing the largest 8 of 11
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$2.2KPnL+$667Avg48.8¢Current70.5¢3,074.44Shares
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?
YesValue$400PnL$0Avg27¢Current27¢1,481.48Shares
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?
YesValue$391PnL+$45Avg32.1¢Current36.3¢1,077.28Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
YesValue$377PnL−$412Avg19.9¢Current9.5¢3,968.66Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
YesValue$247PnL−$253Avg13.2¢Current6.5¢3,796.03Shares
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
YesValue$230PnL−$13Avg5.9¢Current5.6¢4,144.28Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
YesValue$189PnL−$11Avg9¢Current8.5¢2,222.22Shares
Will Xavier Bertrand be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
YesValue$170PnL−$100Avg23.8¢Current15¢1,132.59Shares
Showing 8 of 11 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Toncar16: 46.4% win rate over 181 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +11.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −309.8%, n=13 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−8.0% over 10 fills); +$119.4K lifetime P&L, $4.5M traded, updated 2026-09-24.