PolyTrace
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Trader profile

scrapbook

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$38.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate45.5%154 settled · past 180 days12 open · 62% underwater · 12 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded340Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+3.3% / $95% interval −20.9% to +27.4%12 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+1.5%n=11 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 16 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 45.5% · Decided 154 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded12 hours ago
Current position value
$9.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$1.8K
Concentration
21.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
13
Showing the largest 8 of 13
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
YesValue$2KPnL−$775Avg59.3¢Current42.5¢4,621.23Shares
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$1.7KPnL+$8Avg69.2¢Current69.5¢2,400Shares
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
NoValue$1.4KPnL+$150Avg63¢Current70.5¢2,000Shares
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$1.2KPnL+$230Avg49¢Current60.5¢1,999.99Shares
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$1.2KPnL−$3Avg28.6¢Current28.5¢4,199.91Shares
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$738PnL+$188Avg4.6¢Current6.2¢12,000.02Shares
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$342PnL−$296Avg79.7¢Current42.8¢799.98Shares
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$275PnL+$54Avg2.2¢Current2.8¢10,000Shares
Showing 8 of 13 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet scrapbook: 45.5% win rate over 154 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge +3.3% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −20.9%, n=12 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+1.5% over 11 fills); −$38.5K lifetime P&L, $3.6M traded, updated 2026-09-27.