PolyTrace
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Trader profile

thoodr

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$65.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate90.5%273 settled · past 180 days164 open · 46% underwater · 6 hours ago
Lifetime volume$8.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded666Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−2.4% / $95% interval −31.5% to +26.7%598 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
+2.2%n=27 settled
Unmapped
+0.7%n=48 settled
Tech
+0.1%n=42 settled
Culture
−0.5%n=21 settled
Politics
−3.5%n=451 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 2 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 90.5% · Decided 273 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded6 hours ago
Current position value
$1.4M
Snapshot cash PnL
−$17.6K
Concentration
12.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
169
Showing the largest 8 of 169
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$182.3KPnL+$15.3KAvg87.9¢Current96¢189,999.91Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
NoValue$108.9KPnL+$1.8KAvg97.7¢Current99.4¢109,569.2Shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
NoValue$72.5KPnL+$996Avg98.2¢Current99.6¢72,752.12Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$67.5KPnL+$3.6KAvg81.8¢Current86.5¢77,999.87Shares
Iran leadership change by September 30?
NoValue$62.8KPnL+$851Avg98¢Current99.4¢63,178.43Shares
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
NoValue$62.5KPnL+$2.4KAvg95.5¢Current99.4¢62,952.48Shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
NoValue$53.1KPnL+$1.4KAvg96.5¢Current99.1¢53,610Shares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
NoValue$52.5KPnL+$938Avg97.8¢Current99.6¢52,757.66Shares
Showing 8 of 169 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet thoodr: 90.5% win rate over 273 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −2.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −31.5%, n=598 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (+2.2% over 27 fills); +$65.9K lifetime P&L, $8.6M traded, updated 2026-09-24.