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Trader profile

Vilgefortz

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$337.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate85.7%21 settled · past 90 days10 open · 48% underwater · 20 hours ago
Lifetime volume$17.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded313Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+4.7% / $95% interval −239.1% to +248.5%66 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
+9.6%n=47 settled
Politics
−6.3%n=19 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 10 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 85.7% · Decided 21 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded20 hours ago
Current position value
$372.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$408
Concentration
65.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
10
Showing the largest 8 of 10
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$245.1KPnL+$3.1KAvg83.4¢Current84.5¢290,000Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$64.5KPnL+$345Avg93¢Current93.5¢68,999.98Shares
Will GameStop acquire eBay?
NoValue$32.7KPnL+$2.9KAvg85.3¢Current93.5¢35,000Shares
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$14.6KPnL−$3.1KAvg47.9¢Current39.5¢37,000Shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$5.8KPnL−$2.1KAvg21.2¢Current15.6¢37,000Shares
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$3.2KPnL+$290Avg53.2¢Current58.5¢5,500Shares
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
YesValue$2.7KPnL+$93Avg76.7¢Current79.4¢3,420Shares
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$2.2KPnL+$43Avg68.2¢Current69.5¢3,200Shares
Showing 8 of 10 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Vilgefortz: 85.7% win rate over 21 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +4.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −239.1%, n=66 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (+9.6% over 47 fills); +$337.1K lifetime P&L, $17.1M traded, updated 2026-09-26.