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Trader profile

smellyEllie

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$79KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet233 open · 38% underwater · 5 hours ago
Lifetime volume$3.9M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,785Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−32.6% / $95% interval −521.1% to +455.9%38 settled fills · 90d window
Culture
+0.1%n=12 settled
Politics
−39.9%n=19 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded5 hours ago
Current position value
$51.3K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$3.7K
Concentration
15.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
252
Showing the largest 8 of 252
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
NoValue$7.9KPnL+$2.9KAvg50¢Current79.4¢10,000Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$6KPnL+$1.2KAvg73.2¢Current92¢6,550.38Shares
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
YesValue$4.6KPnL+$3.6KAvg22.9¢Current99.1¢4,671.65Shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$3.8KPnL+$248Avg89.7¢Current96¢4,000.01Shares
US recession by end of 2026?
NoValue$2.4KPnL+$221Avg82¢Current90.5¢2,600Shares
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$2.1KPnL−$2.9KAvg50¢Current20.7¢10,000Shares
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$1.9KPnL+$206Avg86¢Current96.3¢2,000Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$1.5KPnL−$756Avg34¢Current22.5¢6,550.36Shares
Showing 8 of 252 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet smellyEllie: edge −32.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −521.1%, n=38 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Culture (+0.1% over 12 fills); +$79K lifetime P&L, $3.9M traded, updated 2026-09-24.