PolyTrace
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Trader profile

FEAROFWHAT

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$18.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate44.1%118 settled · past 90 days13 open · 89% underwater · 5 hours ago
Lifetime volume$2.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded562Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−37.2% / $95% interval −218.4% to +143.9%15 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−37.2%n=15 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 6 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 44.1% · Decided 118 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded5 hours ago
Current position value
$3.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$10.5K
Concentration
18.9%
Largest share of value
Positions
44
Showing the largest 8 of 44
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
YesValue$695PnL+$85Avg61¢Current69.5¢1,000Shares
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
NoValue$463PnL+$143Avg64¢Current92.5¢500Shares
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
NoValue$437PnL+$123Avg63¢Current87.5¢499.99Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
YesValue$420PnL+$20Avg80¢Current84¢500Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
YesValue$323PnL−$173Avg33¢Current21.5¢1,500Shares
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
NoValue$306PnL+$2Avg76¢Current76.5¢400.01Shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YesValue$225PnL−$115Avg34¢Current22.5¢999.99Shares
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
YesValue$221PnL−$53Avg18¢Current14.5¢1,521Shares
Showing 8 of 44 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet FEAROFWHAT: 44.1% win rate over 118 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −37.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −218.4%, n=15 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−37.2% over 15 fills); +$18.2K lifetime P&L, $2.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.