PolyTrace
← Back to wallets

Trader profile

truthteller

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$119.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate35.2%179 settled · past 90 days24 open · 36% underwater · 2 hours ago
Lifetime volume$148.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded221Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−47.6% / $95% interval −189.5% to +94.4%380 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+6.6%n=53 settled
Sports
−16.1%n=10 settled
Finance
−32.1%n=195 settled
Crypto
−89.0%n=121 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 35.2% · Decided 179 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 hours ago
Current position value
$51.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$36.1K
Concentration
30.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
111
Showing the largest 8 of 111
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
YesValue$15.6KPnL+$11.1KAvg3.3¢Current11.5¢136,177.51Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$8.8KPnL−$1.5KAvg40.5¢Current34.5¢25,443.01Shares
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
NoValue$8.1KPnL+$100Avg93.4¢Current94.6¢8,583.4Shares
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?
YesValue$7.3KPnL+$46Avg93.9¢Current94.5¢7,700Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
NoValue$4.1KPnL−$831Avg42.8¢Current35.5¢11,442.99Shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
YesValue$2.8KPnL−$847Avg20¢Current15.4¢18,260.07Shares
Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
YesValue$1.2KPnL−$833Avg0.3¢Current0.2¢779,857.09Shares
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
YesValue$638PnL−$20Avg39.7¢Current38.5¢1,658.41Shares
Showing 8 of 111 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet truthteller: 35.2% win rate over 179 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −47.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −189.5%, n=380 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+6.6% over 53 fills); +$119.9K lifetime P&L, $148.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.