PolyTrace
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Trader profile

katbot

Market makers
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$12.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…25 open · 8% underwater · 1 day ago
Lifetime volume$1.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded154Lifetime coverage
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−17.2% / $95% interval −479.9% to +445.5%32 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−21.6%n=27 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 22 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded1 day ago
Current position value
$139.7K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$34.1K
Concentration
24.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
25
Showing the largest 8 of 25
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
NoValue$34.7KPnL+$18.6KAvg37.4¢Current81¢42,800.48Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$18KPnL+$4.9KAvg64.2¢Current88.5¢20,331.94Shares
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$8.8KPnL+$2.6KAvg44.8¢Current63.5¢13,862.23Shares
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
YesValue$8.2KPnL+$657Avg65.7¢Current71.5¢11,410.27Shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
NoValue$8KPnL+$1.8KAvg60.1¢Current77.5¢10,298.54Shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
NoValue$7.1KPnL+$212Avg77.1¢Current79.5¢8,946.14Shares
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
NoValue$5.8KPnL+$2.5KAvg51¢Current89.5¢6,445.88Shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$5.5KPnL+$831Avg63.3¢Current74.5¢7,423.64Shares
Showing 8 of 25 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet katbot: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −17.2% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −479.9%, n=32 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−21.6% over 27 fills); +$12.7K lifetime P&L, $1.1M traded, updated 2026-09-22.