Trader profile

fivethirty

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-26

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL−$48KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…0 open · 5 days ago

Lifetime volume$2.6M352 trades · Polymarket

Markets traded56Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−11.6% / $95% interval −108.4% to +85.2%145 settled fills · 90d window

Sports: −11.6%n=145 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 15 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded18 hours ago

Current position value: $0
Snapshot cash PnL: −$90.8K
Concentration: —
Positions: 15

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Szczecin: Facundo Acosta vs Daniel Galan

Facundo Acosta · YesValue$0PnL−$396Avg22¢Current0¢1,798.23Shares

Phan Thiet 4: Masamichi Imamura vs Enzo Aguiard

Masamichi Imamura · YesValue$0PnL−$2.6KAvg20¢Current0¢12,999.96Shares

Valencia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Nastasja Schunk

Oksana Selekhmeteva · YesValue$0PnL−$20KAvg38.6¢Current0¢51,789.02Shares

Guadalajara Open Akron: Elsa Jacquemot vs Liudmila Samsonova

Elsa Jacquemot · YesValue$0PnL−$1,000Avg11¢Current0¢9,119.69Shares

Guadalajara Open Akron: Marta Kostyuk vs Liudmila Samsonova

Marta Kostyuk · YesValue$0PnL−$209Avg81.6¢Current0¢256.23Shares

LoL: LOUD vs paiN Gaming - Game 3 Winner

paiN GamingValue$0PnL−$1.4KAvg14¢Current0¢9,999.9Shares

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Milwaukee Brewers · YesValue$0PnL−$20Avg4.1¢Current0¢491.17Shares

Valencia: Alicia Herrero Linana vs Lucia Cortez Llorca

Lucia Cortez Llorca · NoValue$0PnL−$40KAvg86.4¢Current0¢46,288.33Shares

Showing 8 of 15 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

10 days ago

SELLYES

Tom Gentzsch · 92.2¢

Szczecin: Tom Gentzsch vs Martin KrumichOpen market →$2.3K

10 days ago

BUYYES

Maria Garcia Cid · 92¢

Valencia: Maria Garcia Cid vs Yasmine KabbajOpen market →$1.4K

11 days ago

SELLNO

Daniel Galan · 78¢

Szczecin: Facundo Acosta vs Daniel GalanOpen market →$1.4K

11 days ago

SELLNO

Anouk Koevermans · 95.4¢

Caldas da Rainha: Elena Micic vs Anouk KoevermansOpen market →$9.8K

11 days ago

SELLYES

Weronika Falkowska · 88¢

Ljubljana: Weronika Falkowska vs Kristina NovakOpen market →$1.8K

About this wallet

Wallet fivethirty: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −11.6% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −108.4%, n=145 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−11.6% over 145 fills); −$48K lifetime P&L, $2.6M traded, updated 2026-09-26.