PolyTrace
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Trader profile

alexhist

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$2.5KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Only 4 settled so far7 open · 63% underwater · 2 days ago
Lifetime volume$88.9K105 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded19Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−27.0% / $95% interval −75.8% to +21.7%13 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
−27.0%n=13 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 13 hours ago

How this record is measured

Too few positions have settled to establish a win-rate record.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 days ago
Current position value
$2.8K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$28
Concentration
73.5%
Largest share of value
Positions
9
Showing the largest 8 of 9
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$2.1KPnL+$13Avg77¢Current77.5¢2,665.99Shares
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
NoValue$206PnL+$6Avg93¢Current95.8¢215.05Shares
Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on September 30?
YesValue$145PnL+$0.43Avg95.5¢Current95.8¢151.3Shares
Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?
NoValue$117PnL−$2Avg97.6¢Current96.4¢121.87Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?
YesValue$110PnL−$14Avg30¢Current26.5¢413.33Shares
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$90PnL−$34Avg45¢Current32.5¢275.56Shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
NoValue$79PnL+$9Avg85¢Current96.4¢82.35Shares
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
YesValue$0PnL−$6Avg0.4¢Current0¢1,500Shares
Showing 8 of 9 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet alexhist: edge −27.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −75.8%, n=13 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (−27.0% over 13 fills); +$2.5K lifetime P&L, $88.9K traded, updated 2026-09-25.