PolyTrace
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Trader profile

Dragontree

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$149.7KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate60.8%362 settled · past 90 days33 open · 18% underwater · 13 hours ago
Lifetime volume$15.6M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded849Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
+139.5% / $95% interval −39.8% to +318.9%152 settled fills · 90d window
Politics
+296.6%n=69 settled
Finance
+1.7%n=29 settled
Culture
−9.7%n=18 settled
Sports
−33.5%n=17 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 60.8% · Decided 362 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded13 hours ago
Current position value
$50.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
+$3.6K
Concentration
52.4%
Largest share of value
Positions
33
Showing the largest 8 of 33
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?
NoValue$26.5KPnL+$130Avg99.5¢Current100¢26,491.08Shares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$5.4KPnL+$1KAvg79.8¢Current98.5¢5,525.05Shares
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?
NoValue$5.4KPnL+$1.9KAvg61.6¢Current96.7¢5,552.55Shares
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
YesValue$5.2KPnL+$240Avg75.8¢Current79.5¢6,512.64Shares
Will Catherine O'Hara be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?
NoValue$1KPnL+$90Avg90.7¢Current99.6¢1,009.95Shares
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?
NoValue$634PnL+$533Avg15.5¢Current97.6¢649.59Shares
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?
NoValue$576PnL−$159Avg81¢Current63.5¢906.82Shares
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
NoValue$567PnL+$95Avg82.5¢Current99.1¢571.95Shares
Showing 8 of 33 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet Dragontree: 60.8% win rate over 362 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge +139.5% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −39.8%, n=152 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Politics (+296.6% over 69 fills); +$149.7K lifetime P&L, $15.6M traded, updated 2026-09-23.