PolyTrace
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Trader profile

impliedbelief

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$30.1KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate—Not measured yet1 open · 100% underwater · 9 days ago
Lifetime volume$365.5K383 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded37Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−40.7% / $95% interval −74.1% to −7.2%30 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−40.7%n=30 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 10 hours ago

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded2 days ago
Current position value
$35
Snapshot cash PnL
−$70.2K
Concentration
100%
Largest share of value
Positions
17
Showing the largest 8 of 17
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Darius Acuff Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?
YesValue$35PnL−$12Avg6¢Current4.5¢768.1Shares
Will Rudy Gobert win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?
YesValue$0PnL−$40Avg6.1¢Current0¢662.51Shares
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
YesValue$0PnL−$56Avg0.3¢Current0¢21,427.6Shares
Will LeBron's next contract average $15M-$50M per year?
YesValue$0PnL−$2.4KAvg33.2¢Current0¢7,228Shares
Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?
NoValue$0PnL−$300Avg73.1¢Current0¢410.97Shares
Will Luka Doncic lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?
NoValue$0PnL−$60Avg0.3¢Current0¢22,897.26Shares
Will Darryn Peterson be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft?
YesValue$0PnL−$1.9KAvg20¢Current0¢9,699.16Shares
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?
NoValue$0PnL−$601Avg41.2¢Current0¢1,457.06Shares
Showing 8 of 17 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet impliedbelief: edge −40.7% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −74.1%, n=30 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−40.7% over 30 fills); −$30.1K lifetime P&L, $365.5K traded, updated 2026-09-25.