PolyTrace
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Trader profile

aviato

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$189.2KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate83.3%498 settled · past 90 days96 open · 7% underwater · 34 minutes ago
Lifetime volume$31.7M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded904Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−9.9% / $95% interval −138.3% to +118.4%204 settled fills · 90d window
Finance
+0.8%n=37 settled
Sports
+0.7%n=15 settled
Culture
−4.3%n=52 settled
Politics
−18.3%n=88 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 24 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 83.3% · Decided 498 · 90d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Complete34 minutes ago
Current position value
$180.1K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$16.1K
Concentration
13.8%
Largest share of value
Positions
133
Showing the largest 8 of 133
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?
YesValue$24.9KPnL+$1.4KAvg93.4¢Current99¢25,183.44Shares
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?
NoValue$16.5KPnL+$1.4KAvg83.8¢Current91.9¢17,956.54Shares
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
NoValue$13.5KPnL+$1.6KAvg83.3¢Current94.3¢14,319.06Shares
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
NoValue$11.7KPnL+$743Avg90.4¢Current96.6¢12,096.38Shares
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
NoValue$10.2KPnL+$727Avg91.8¢Current98.9¢10,290.14Shares
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
NoValue$9KPnL+$710Avg85.5¢Current92.9¢9,715.37Shares
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
NoValue$7.1KPnL+$191Avg91¢Current93.5¢7,643.33Shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
NoValue$6.9KPnL+$170Avg84.4¢Current86.5¢8,000Shares
Showing 8 of 133 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet aviato: 83.3% win rate over 498 resolved positions (last 90 days), edge −9.9% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −138.3%, n=204 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Finance (+0.8% over 37 fills); +$189.2K lifetime P&L, $31.7M traded, updated 2026-09-24.