PolyTrace
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Trader profile

alwayswithcaution

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$5.3KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate70.4%125 settled · past 180 days0 open · 5 days ago
Lifetime volume$1.1M374 trades · Polymarket
Markets traded342Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−14.4% / $95% interval −391.1% to +362.4%11 settled fills · 90d window

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 9 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 70.4% · Decided 125 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded6 hours ago
Current position value
$0
Snapshot cash PnL
−$13.3K
Concentration
—
Largest share of value
Positions
68
Showing the largest 8 of 68
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on August 19?
YesValue$0PnL−$20Avg63¢Current0¢31.73Shares
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 8?
NoValue$0PnL−$349Avg95.3¢Current0¢366.07Shares
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 12?
NoValue$0PnL−$106Avg98¢Current0¢108.2Shares
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 20?
YesValue$0PnL−$50Avg70¢Current0¢71.43Shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?
YesValue$0PnL−$550Avg73.6¢Current0¢746.95Shares
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C or higher on July 30?
YesValue$0PnL−$100Avg45.1¢Current0¢221.89Shares
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on August 19?
YesValue$0PnL−$20Avg70.7¢Current0¢28.29Shares
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 75°F or below on August 9?
NoValue$0PnL$0Avg0¢Current0¢384.74Shares
Showing 8 of 68 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet alwayswithcaution: 70.4% win rate over 125 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −14.4% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −391.1%, n=11 settled fills over 90 days); −$5.3K lifetime P&L, $1.1M traded, updated 2026-09-26.