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Trader profile

LimitOrderLarry

Directional
Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗Chrome

Historical record

Profitable historically.

Lifetime PnL+$3.4KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime
Win rate50.6%5,954 settled · past 180 days50 open · 59% underwater · 15 hours ago
Lifetime volume$9.1M1,000+ trades · Polymarket
Markets traded1,410Lifetime coverage
90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…
Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed
−13.8% / $95% interval −45.9% to +18.3%149 settled fills · 90d window
Sports
−4.6%n=111 settled
Finance
−31.8%n=38 settled

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 4 hours ago

How this record is measured

Win rate 50.6% · Decided 5,954 · 180d

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Last loaded15 hours ago
Current position value
$14.5K
Snapshot cash PnL
−$101
Concentration
26.1%
Largest share of value
Positions
50
Showing the largest 8 of 50
EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YesValue$3.8KPnL−$168Avg60.6¢Current58.1¢6,488Shares
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
YesValue$3.4KPnL+$25Avg67¢Current67.5¢5,042Shares
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
YesValue$1.9KPnL−$22Avg38.9¢Current38.5¢4,887.48Shares
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
YesValue$1.5KPnL+$122Avg20.4¢Current22.2¢6,920Shares
Will Madrid host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup?
YesValue$951PnL−$31Avg39.8¢Current38.5¢2,469Shares
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
YesValue$397PnL+$5Avg38¢Current38.5¢1,030.53Shares
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?
YesValue$240PnL+$17Avg20.9¢Current22.5¢1,066.77Shares
Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?
YesValue$203PnL−$13Avg74¢Current69.5¢291.81Shares
Showing 8 of 50 positions by current value
Results
Exposure
Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

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Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

About this wallet

Wallet LimitOrderLarry: 50.6% win rate over 5,954 resolved positions (last 180 days), edge −13.8% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −45.9%, n=149 settled fills over 90 days), strongest in Sports (−4.6% over 111 fills); +$3.4K lifetime P&L, $9.1M traded, updated 2026-09-23.