Trader profile

noblesse.oblige

Directional

Profile updated2026-09-25

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Loss-making historically.

Lifetime PnL−$45.6KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Win rate—Not measured yet10 open · >99% underwater · 22 hours ago

Lifetime volume$2.4M1,000+ trades · Polymarket

Markets traded153Lifetime coverage

90d decided PnL—Loading settled-position results…

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

Not measured: fewer than 10 settled fills in the window. No edge is published for this wallet, and that is not a zero.

How this record is measured

This wallet's win rate has not been measured yet.

Observed activity

Where and how this wallet trades

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded22 hours ago

Current position value: $2K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$20.2K
Concentration: 58.2%
Positions: 41

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

YesValue$1.1KPnL−$1KAvg12.2¢Current6.5¢17,625.78Shares

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

YesValue$390PnL−$195Avg48.7¢Current32.5¢1,200Shares

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?

YesValue$364PnL−$183Avg17.3¢Current11.5¢3,167.49Shares

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?

YesValue$39PnL−$16Avg10.5¢Current7.5¢515.46Shares

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

NoValue$19PnL−$15Avg17¢Current9.5¢199.99Shares

Macron out by December 31, 2026?

YesValue$4PnL−$1Avg5.3¢Current3.9¢94.09Shares

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

YesValue$2PnL+$0.08Avg1.2¢Current1.3¢166.67Shares

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

YesValue$2PnL−$2Avg4¢Current1.9¢100Shares

Showing 8 of 41 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

15 days ago

SELLNO

No change · 81¢

Fed Decision in September?Open market →

no result

$1.6K