Trader profile

Akatosh

Market makers

Profile updated2026-09-23

Polymarket ↗PolygonscanExplorer ↗

Chrome

Historical record

Market-making activity, measured as two-sided flow.

Lifetime PnL+$1.9KPolymarket leaderboard · lifetime

Buy / sell split—Loading trading flow…12 open · 98% underwater · 21 hours ago

Lifetime volume$169.8K333 trades · Polymarket

Markets traded106Lifetime coverage

Edge vs entry price

Profit per $1 risked, measured against the price each position was entered at.

How this is computed

−14.0% / $95% interval −513.9% to +485.9%15 settled fills · 90d window

A category is listed from 10 settled fills upward.

This wallet is not classified as directional. Market-making and arbitrage strategies take losing legs by design, so their edge describes the payoff of that strategy rather than a judgement about outcomes.

Measured 5 hours ago

How this record is measured

Two-sided market-making flow does not measure directional forecasting skill.

Observed activity

How this wallet provides liquidity

Only recorded trades of $1K+ are included; this is not the wallet's full history.

No category data for this wallet.

No tracked trading behavior yet.

Current holdings

Sources

Holdings use the current Polymarket portfolio snapshot.

Last loaded21 hours ago

Current position value: $1.5K
Snapshot cash PnL: −$717
Concentration: 31.7%
Positions: 16

EventOutcomeValuePnLAvg → CurrentShares

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

NoValue$483PnL−$17Avg71.9¢Current69.5¢695.07Shares

Will Trump not endorse a Party in the 2026 Israeli Election?

YesValue$409PnL−$140Avg69.1¢Current51.5¢793.92Shares

Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026?

NoValue$402PnL+$2Avg64.7¢Current65¢618.47Shares

Will Trump endorse Likud in the 2026 Israeli Election?

NoValue$154PnL−$46Avg71¢Current54.5¢281.69Shares

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?

NoValue$39PnL−$12Avg28.1¢Current21.5¢183.28Shares

Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by October 31, 2026?

NoValue$31PnL+$1Avg75.5¢Current79¢39.74Shares

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

YesValue$2PnL−$1Avg10.7¢Current7¢28.16Shares

Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

NoValue$1PnL+$0.09Avg76¢Current83¢1.32Shares

Showing 8 of 16 positions by current value

Results by category

Sources

Category results use decided positions from the last 90 days.

Results

Exposure

Loading category evidence…

Results and exposure are checked against separate coverage records.

Recent activity

Whale activity over 30 days

Tracked trades ≥$1K. Empty days keep their place in the timeline.

Loading tracked activity…

Large trades

Recent large trades

Trade facts; use ? for snapshot-based explanations

6 hours ago

SELLYES

September 30 · 81.2¢

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Open market →$1.4K

15 hours ago

BUYYES

September 30 · 80¢

CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by...?Open market →$1.9K

Open

5 days ago

BUYYES

September 25 · 81¢

Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?Open market →$1K

2 months ago

BUYYES

Apple · 81¢

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Open market →$1.1K

2 months ago

SELLNO

July 17 · 98.3¢

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Open market →$1.8K

About this wallet

Wallet Akatosh: two-sided market-making flow, so no directional win rate is published, edge −14.0% per $1 risked (95% lower bound −513.9%, n=15 settled fills over 90 days); +$1.9K lifetime P&L, $169.8K traded, updated 2026-09-23.